The Time to Cut-off Congress is Now or Never

In twelve years, we'll be celebrating the centennial of the Social Security Act.

While a milestone for some, 2035 (or earlier) will be the year when our decline accelerates.

Historians are reluctant to offer dates for their predictions. They like the certainty that comes from looking back. Me too, but I'm not a historian.

The social and political turbulence we've been experiencing for the past twenty years will be extreme in 2035, when social security payments are cut by one-fourth. This cut will push millions of Americans into poverty and trigger a tipping point for the country.

In The Changing World Order, Dalio explains how things accelerate downward near the end of great empires. For the great American empire, this acceleration begins on or about 2035 and will correspond with cuts in social security.

It's one thing to move from poverty to riches but going in the opposite direction is something no one will accept. Our ideology of greatness runs too deep to be denied; dissonance will take hold, and the predictably irrational will follow. Democracy will become wobbly and fragile things like the Bill of Rights will fracture. The creditworthiness of the United States and its Treasury bonds will take a turn for the worse. Losing reserve currency status for the dollar will follow. Interest rates will jump, and our interest payments on the debt will exceed $2 trillion annually when we can least afford it. According to Statista, in 2022, we paid over $700 billion in interest.

The opportunities for fixing social security have been many. But those opportunities have dwindled over the years due to a lack of action by Congress.

The Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees are responsible for managing social security funds and reporting recommendations to Congress. A visit to the Social Security's Office of the Chief Actuary website reveals the frustration those in the Federal Government are having with Congress too.

"The last 11 Trustees Reports have indicated that Social Security's Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) Trust Fund reserves would become depleted between 2033 and 2035 … If no legislative change is enacted, scheduled tax revenues will be sufficient to pay only about three-fourths of the scheduled benefits after trust fund depletion." [bold added]

Eleven attempts and nothing was done!

Would members of Congress need eleven attempts from a bank, pharma, defense, or media lobbyist for a meeting?

Given that Social Security represents one-fifth of the entire U.S. budget and affects 49 million Americans, one would think our leaders in Congress would only need one Trustee report to act.

Now that eleven reports have gone unnoticed, what do you think the odds are of Congress jumping into action with the twelfth?

The Congressional playbook on trillions in savings mismanaged will be to increase the debt ceiling. The lazy way of avoiding hard work and difficult decisions that's been the standard since 2001, the last time the U.S. had a surplus. The Congressional playbook, however, is running out of plays,

According to the Trustees' 2022 report, “In 2021, Social Security's total cost exceeded total income, including interest on trust fund asset reserves, by $56 billion. The Trustees project that total cost will exceed total income in all future years.”

With more money running out of social security than into it, the noose on options is tightening, thanks to Congress's inaction.

Isn't this undeniable proof that Congress can no longer keep its Constitutional oath to provide for the common good? I write capable because I assume all members have the best intentions. It's just their lack of execution that's ungodly.

I am not advocating that we abolish Congress, but rather that we radically change Congress's role by removing it from its control over money and spending. This massive pivot could start by putting the OASDI Trust Fund under the control of state governments or an independent body chosen by state governments.

This is not the option I want for the U.S., but the one we must take. I would rather have a working and purposeful Congress, but this will not happen as long as Congress controls spending. It's the drug of a body that's long past due for rehab. With money out of the way, Congress will be motivated to serve the country first and lobbyists last.

Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution, which defines the powers of Congress, begins with the words: "The Congress shall have…" not the words "The Congress must have…"

I am no constitutional scholar, but we don't need a Constitutional Amendment to separate Congress from spending. We just need the will to face reality and reform how Washington operates.

Considering the 2033-2035 window forecasted by the Social Security Board of Trustees and the time it will take to pivot Congress and the Federal Government, it's no exaggeration to say we don't have a day to waste.